World War 3, also known as the Third World War, is a hypothetical global conflict that has the potential to involve most, if not all, of the world’s nations. The term was first coined by Herman Kahn in his 1973 book, “The Third World War: A Strategy for Survival.” The book outlined a potential scenario in which the Soviet Union and the United States go to war in Europe.Since then, the definition of World War 3 has expanded to include any large-scale global conflict. It can be sparked by many issues, including economic instability, terrorism, nationalism, and ethnic conflicts.
The possibility of a Third World War has become increasingly relevant in recent years as tensions between world powers have continued to rise. The conflict in Ukraine, the nuclear standoff between the United States and North Korea, and the growing rift between the United States and Russia/China are all examples of how the geopolitics is changing.
Russia-Ukraine
The Russia-Ukraine war is a conflict that has been ongoing since 2014. It began with the Russian annexation of Crimea and has since escalated into a full-scale war in eastern Ukraine. It has resulted in over 10,000 deaths and has displaced over 1.5 million people. The war has also had a negative impact on the economy of Ukraine, with GDP dropping by over 10% in 2015. The Russia-Ukraine war is a complex conflict with a long history. Ukraine then lost control of parts of its eastern territory, as pro-Russian separatists seized control of key cities and towns. The conflict then escalated into a full-scale war, as Ukrainian forces attempted to regain control of the east. The war has been devastating for Ukraine, both in terms of human loss and damage to infrastructure. Over thousands of people have been killed and over millions have been displaced.
Today, the war is expanding beyond its borders and going international. Like world war 2, sides are being formed for a greater conflict. Weapon deals and military contracts are being signed on a daily basis. The possibility of a nuclear conflict is at its highest. Governments are asking people to prepare for it. This is a Public Service announcement by the US government to the people of New York.
Truth is the first casualty in any war. Both the sides spread their propaganda for psychological war on the opposite side and also to motivate their own soldiers on the battlefield. Since we try to maintain an unbiased opinion on this website, we will not mention any current casualty numbers or damage costs in this article. Here is one such example that is not verified. You can choose to believe it or discard it. It is your choice.
The Russia-Ukraine war is a complex conflict with no easy solution. Both sides have suffered greatly, and it seems unlikely that the war will end soon.
Iran
Iran is another major inflection point in this ongoing crisis where everyone, including you and me, will be affected. The location of Iran and its vicinity to all the oil-producing nations, including itself, makes it the most important geostrategic location on the planet. Because governments around the world don't want high oil prices during this turbulent moment. A war in the middle east region will increase the price of oil and thereby increase inflation on all commodities in all countries around the world.
Iran currently undergoing riots and protests against the hijab. As geostrategists, we should consider this as a major issue (even though it is an internal issue); because when nations experience internal turmoil and riots, they usually go to war. Recently, Saudi Arabia has issued an alert about a possible Iranian attack in Saudi Arabia, targeting oil-refineries.
North Korea
United States and North Korea have been at loggerheads for decades, with the US imposing strict economic sanctions and maintaining a large military presence in the region in an effort to deter the North Korean regime from starting a war with the South Koreans. The situation has only become more tense in recent years, as North Korea has made rapid progress in its nuclear weapons program.
With the recent success in frequent nuclear weapons tests, the Korean peninsula has once again become an active military zone. The situation is now at a boiling point, with both sides seeming unwilling to back down. It remains to be seen what will happen next, but the prospects for a peaceful resolution seem unlikely.
China
China recently has been strategically silent in its desire to invade Taiwan. Taiwan is a political tool for China that is used to divert the attention of its citizens away from any domestic issues that threaten the communist government.
Recently, as the world's attention is on North Korea and Russia, the Chinese are focused on India and Pakistan. Because China has realised that without securing its relations with India, it cannot launch an invasion into Taiwan (due to India's relationship with the US; and the possibility of using India as a base for counterattack by the Americans).
I believe China is currently under internal stress because of its pandemic policies and lockdown systems. Strategically, China is waiting for the United States to weaken itself internally, politically, economically, and strategically; before launching an attack on Taiwan.
Other Areas
Azerbaijan-Armenia issue is not considered as an imminent threat to global peace and security, but as a localized regional issue (A proxy for West and Russia). Therefore, these types of proxy warfare (Yemen-Saudi, etc.) are not considered as an individual issue but rather an extension of the forces that control them; unless proven otherwise. Hence, they are purposefully omitted in this article (but may appear in the later articles as the situation unfolds).
Why is it happening?
Entropy
We humans are always trying to find perfection in every aspect of our lives. And in this stride to perfection, we create laws to bring order to this world filled with chaos. Humans are the only living beings that can bring order to the chaos and are successful every time.
But as peace sets in, the very system that we created becomes too complex as time goes by. And very often, when societies become too complex to handle, they disintegrate into chaos. Therefore, it becomes a cyclical process. Right now, we all are experiencing the same disintegration process.
For those readers that are interested in mythology, religion and history; there is a reference to this phenomenon in ancient Hinduism: -
As humans travel from Satyuga (Golden age) to Kaliyuga (Materialistic age), entropy increases. As each yuga passes, natural calamities, diseases and violence increase; while cognitive ability, morality, and peace decrease. Some notable examples are biblical floods, bubonic plague, the destruction of Pompeii. This picture actually represents the current modern events with that of the teachings of Ancient Hinduism.
And when the entropy peaks, the disturbance is at its highest. This disturbance destroys all the creations and then humanity will have to start from the beginning.
For those readers who are interested in science; a similar version of this is explained in the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
Mathematically, the second law of thermodynamics is represented as;
ΔS > 0
where ΔS is the change in the entropy of the universe.
Entropy is a measure of the randomness of the system or it is the measure of energy or chaos within an isolated system. It can be considered as a quantitative index that describes the quality of energy.
For more information on this, you can read the book called "The Collapse of Complex Societies" or watch this YouTube video.
What will happen next?
The next 4-5 months (i.e. November, December, January, February and March) are going to be crucial in geopolitics. It will decide the future of this century.
Any country that is in decline experiences the most dangerous period in its history. And if that country has thousands of nuclear weapons and half the world's population as its enemies, then we can say that it is the most dangerous time in history for humanity.
The current global superpowers, the United States of America and its allies, are in a decline phase. And most of the rising world superpowers are its enemies. This type of conundrums can only be solved by time. There is a possibility that these two factions can go to war and decide on the next global leader. A rising power always can become a decline power when they engage in a war if they are unprepared. Similarly, a declining power can use this opportunity to unite its people, resolve internal conflicts and finally defeat the rising power to retain its global superpower position. More information regarding this will be mentioned in Part 2 of the article on the collapse of the western civilization. Here is a video that shows a rise in sales of military hardware and uniforms in Ukraine.
I personally believe that a silent third neutral nation will assume the role of the next global leader. I will make a dedicated article about this in the coming days.
How to get correct information?
Currently, nuclear weapons are on high alert all around the world. To understand the level of military alertness, there is a metric called the Defcon. It is a 5 Level warning system that defines how alert the US military is to the active global situations. 5-being the least alert and 1-showing an imminent attack. Even though the actual defcon level within the military may be confidential, the government always releases a general Defcon level to alert the public.
For all the busy reader, instead of wasting time reading all the news on the internet to understand the seriousness of the current global event, I recommend the readers to look into the Defcon level of your country. I am pretty sure that all countries around the world will have an alternative to the US Defcon level. This requires some research about your nation's military, but in the long term it saves time and effort.
For me personally, I always consider a level of Defcon that is 1 or 2 levels higher than what the government says. Example: if the Government says 3, I would consider it to be 2. Because, Governments dislike mass panic and therefore they might try to minimise the seriousness of the situation. This is my personal opinion. You are always free to have different views on this matter. (Currently, It is on Level 3; as per the US Government)
Why should you care?
In a highly complex and connected world, war that involved multiple nation will affect all of us; either directly or indirectly. It is essential that we must look forward and prepare for it when possible. Right now, most of the population is focused on regional petty politics and celebrity gossip. This can be a golden opportunity for those that willing to prepare for the worst; as the cost of preparing for these scenarios is relatively cheaper due to lower demand due to the reasons mentioned above. Even countries are preparing financially by buying gold and other physical assets to keep their financial strength during the collapse of the Dollar.
As a beginner, you can prepare in small steps like: -
Purchasing extra food items and storing it away; for future use
Buying adequate emergency fuel and medical supplies; and store it safely.
Investing in real physical assets that can be useful when the internet fails.
prioritising escape plan for people in foreign countries or for those who like to travel.
setting up a different location as a backup to your current location if anything where to happen.
connecting and co-ordinating with like-minded people.
and most importantly, becoming self reliant (like terrace farming).
All these are beginner's tips to prepare for what may happen in the future. I will write a sequel to this article where I will discuss how you can prepare.
A global war is likely to happen within anytime in the next 10 years, but the next 4-5 months may lay the foundation of a volatile future for humanity. Internal disturbances, crime, and violence will probably be common as the financial situation of the countries involved worsens. Personally, I believe it is better to prepare for the worst and while hoping for the best.
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NOTE: This article does not intend to malign or disrespect any person on gender, orientation, color, profession, or nationality. This article does not intend to cause fear or anxiety to its readers. Any personal resemblances are purely coincidental.
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