Oil: According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or O.P.E.C, it has 80.4% of the World's Oil reserves. The development that we see in the Middle-Eastern region is all funded by oil, after its discovery on March 3, 1938. (Link)
The Middle-East region is the most unstable region on the planet. With multiple wars fought for many decades for different reasons, therefore peace is considered as a luxury. But for the past decade, in most areas, there has been a steady growth, stability and economic prosperity. The living standards in that region are the highest that have ever been, for the local population.
There are several reasons why there will be another Middle-East war soon:-
The World is moving away from Petroleum
Sustainable energy is being promoted internationally for low carbon emissions and to combat climate change. As the world population is moving away from petroleum, it threatens the existence of the Arab countries by taking away their primary source of income. The security in the Arab countries is only due to the high income that each citizen receives. Arab countries are highly dependent on import of essential goods and services for their survival, like food and medicines.
Decrease in the Standard of Living
The nation of Lebanon is the best example to understand the consequences of decreasing living standard. The financial crisis in 2019 is not the cause, but the side-effect of the deep divide and civil wars. (Link)
In any country, when the living standards decline, people choose violence. As income decreases, and people lose jobs, dangerous ideologies spread easily using foreign help. These foreign entities enforce their own interests in that nation. These ideologies destroy the country in which they are spread with the help of their own citizens. We saw that in Iraq, Libya and Syria.
Here in this tweet, we can see the man comparing his previous month's electricity bill of PKR84286 ($388.15) with this month's bill of PKR98315 ($452.75). 16.6431% inflation in a single month.
Currently, Turkey is having an inflation of 83% which means if a pack of bread cost 100 last year this year, it will cost 183. It is to be noted that the salary of the employees remains unchanged as per their contract.
Terrorism
After the Iraq War, the living standard of the Iraqis was so low that they were easily recruited by ISIS. We all know what happened after that. The point I am trying to make is that, in the absence of efficient leaders, people get divided and start fighting each other for control. During this fighting, the critical infrastructure is destroyed first. These damages fuel more distress in the community and cause more violence. This cycle continues as long as there is nothing left in the country that interests other countries. The people finally are left with 2 options: either migrate to another country, or stay in their own country and deal with the problems. Most of the people migrate. We see that happening in Europe.
The Ukraine-Russia War
Yes, the Russia-Ukraine war affects the Middle-East. With the war raging in Europe, we are seeing the Middle-East region taking sides. The politics behind this move are highly risky as the protection of the Middle Eastern countries is provided by the Western Nations. The Arab nations totally depend on the West for weapons and support. Taking sides for a conflict happening on another continent will not be beneficial for the local general population in the long term.
As of writing this blog, US lawmakers are debating to remove the support and aid from Arab countries for decreasing oil production to increase prices. OPEC is setting an additional price for only the US. Removing military support from the Middle East will decrease the security of the region. With the US out, countries like Yemen may gain an advantage in the ongoing war. (Link)
Arab nations siding with Russia is not a good decision in the short term, as Russia is currently in a war on its own. Therefore, to militarily assist other countries during a war is highly unlikely. The long-term affects depends on the outcome of the current conflicts.
The Infighting
If we look at 2021 Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, we must understand it as a foundation of a major conflict that will happen in the Arab World. A hostile regime in the most hostile part of the world, with access to all the most important countries in the region, is very dangerous in the long-term stability of the world.
It is highly likely that we will see a fight in the Central Asia countries soon. A war between Afghanistan and Pakistan is highly likely within the next two years. The Nuclear weapons in Pakistan pose a grave threat to the world as it can fall into the wrong hands. Here Pakistan is discussed because the collapse of Pakistan will have a major impact on the Arab World, as it is the most powerful Islamic country, in terms of military.
Iran is also actively engaged in proxy wars in Yemen against the UAE and Saudi. It is possible that we may see a direct confrontation between Saudi and Iran in 10 years if the regime in Iran exists until then. Currently, Iran is going through a destabilization phase due to civil riots. Iran has also sided with the Russians in their war against Ukraine, and is supplying drones to Russia. At the same time, we are seeing Pakistan siding with Ukraine by supplying them with weapons. Clearly, the Arab world is dividing.
If Iran falls, it will be another Iraq, filled with terrorism. If Iran survives, then it may end up in a war with the Saudis. In both ways, a war seems inevitable.
Climate Crisis
Climate crisis is also affecting the Middle Eastern countries. The recent floods in Oman, Pakistan and the UAE is an example. Climate crisis in the Middle East will affect the immigrant populations. Natural Disasters bring unforeseen expenses to companies, business and to the country. In most cases, such expenses can be handled, but if the there are a continuous series of disasters, then all countries prefer helping their own citizens first.
Ultimate Cause
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For all wars to start, there has to be an ultimate cause. If we look at World War 2, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand started the war. When we learn from history, we understand that all the nations in Europe were fully prepared for the war with weapons and ammunitions. But they preferred not to start a war. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand was done by a student called Gavrilo Princip from a terrorist organization called "Black Hand" in 1914. The war immediately began after that.
Today, we are seeing a similar trend. Currently, the chessboard is being arranged, and the sided are being taken. After which, only a spark is needed to ignite a war. Foreign companies and citizens live and work in the developed countries in the Middle East because of the security and the tax free lifestyle. If these 2 are damaged, we will see a massive exodus of people and from the Middle East.
How can you protect yourself during this crisis?
In short, it depends on you.
If you are an immigrant who is in work visa, then it is highly important to understand that companies will end your contract to reduce their expenses. During an emergency, essential services do not work. It is always advisable to have at least 10 days of food and water stored in your house. It is not advisable to keep a large amount of money in local banks; sending it to your home country is a better way of protecting it. If you are with your family, at the first sign of trouble, send them back to their home country because it may be difficult to get flight tickets. Evacuations may take weeks or months to arrive. It is necessary to ensure your survival until then.
If you are a citizen of an Arab country, it is necessary to have at least 30 days of food and water stored in your house. Having an additional passport of a different country is good during times like these. During war or a crisis, it is best to avoid travelling to cities because those are the places where the fighting will be.
If you are a tourist, then it is highly advisable to do research on the country that you are traveling. While you are in the country, it is important that you follow the local news. Travel advisories by governments are also worth looking.
How this will affect other countries?
In terms of finance, the cost of importing goods from the Arab countries, primarily oil, will increase. Already the Russia-Ukraine war is creating an energy crisis around the world. With the recent decrease in oil production, and the demand for oil unchanged, we will see oil being used as a financial weapon in the future. This can have disastrous consequences in the oil-importing nations.
The immigrant population will return to their own countries in masses. Thereby putting a strain on the receiving country's financial outlook. The expat population is also a source of income for National Foreign Exchange Reserves because of their remittances. Foreign Exchange reserves are for transaction between different nations. With the expat population repatriated, remittances will decrease, decreasing the foreign exchange reserve and taxes. Unemployment is also expected to rise.
Reminder
United States Government supported the Afghan Government for 20 years. But still the Afghan Government fell within 6 hours against the Taliban attack. Now plan what would you do in that first 6, 12 and 24 hours. It doesn't matter if the country is going to war or not, be prepared while you are in another country.
I firmly believe that we may probably see a war in the Middle East before 2027. We will see tension between the countries in the Middle East rise by November 2022. Therefore, if you plan on settling in any of the Middle Eastern Countries, consider the advantage and disadvantages and plan accordingly.
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NOTE: This article does not intend to malign or disrespect any person on gender, orientation, color, or nationality. This article does not intend to cause fear or anxiety to its readers. All the information used is supported by sources that are verifiable.
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